Black swan

Greg Wyatt • March 21, 2024

When everything else is known, it’s hidden context that completes the puzzle.

I’ve written about the importance of context in recruitment on a number of occasions. It’s the basis of what, who, how, when and why you should recruit.

You can read one such article here.

And I was reminded of its importance by listening to Never Split the Difference by Chris Voss. (incidentally narrated by Michael Kramer who also narrates Wheel of Time)

He describes that one of the defining aspects of a complex negotiation is the Black Swan: a high-impact event that is difficult to predict under normal circumstances, but in retrospect appears to have been inevitable.

In recruitment, finding the black swan means looking at reasons you wouldn’t or couldn’t otherwise have considered that have led to undesirable outcomes.

This article shows a number of ways in which you can find the black swan, so that you improve both how you recruit and the outcomes of your efforts.


You may have also come across the same theme in ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’ terms made famous by Donald Rumsfeld when discussing the invasion of Iraq in 2002, in which it is accepted you have to make pivotal decisions without full information.

Yet, in any negotiation, which can be any interaction, known or otherwise, with a candidate, full facts are the only way to predict, with confidence, the outcome.

You are right negotiation isn’t just about persuasion and influence, conversations and offers, it’s also about how you negotiate the journey beforehand.


An example.


Let’s take the Chief Operating Officer (COO) position in a company.

Typically this is the role that oversees all operations of a business and is the right-hand to the CEO.

This week I’ve been talking to a number of COO job seekers.

Let me tell you all of their CVs are pretty much identical.

And they all express dismay at having breadth and depth of transferrable skills, yet not being able to have a look-in for the various COO vacancies they go for.

If you look at the COO vacancies they apply for, they typically look pretty much the same:

  • Company info

  • Job responsibilities

  • Essential and desirable requirements

  • Benefits (often only the contractual ones)

  • £Competitive salary

  • Diversity statement

Compare the responsibilities and requirements, and the terminology is often pretty much interchangeable both between themselves, and the CVs of the many excellent COOs out there.

None of these vacancies stand out, nor do any of the COOs.

Yet are any of them in any way identical?

Of course not.

What’s missing is context.

When everything else is known, it’s the hidden context that completes the puzzle.


A COO of a bootstrapped £1m business has a similar CV to the COO of a multinational’s division.

A COO vacancy for a downsizing business in turnaround has the same advert as a COO for one in maintenance mode and another growing rapidly.

While all are market-leading progressive innovators.


If employers and candidates thought to show suitable and sufficient context, everyone would find recruitment a lot easier.

An obvious point, yet not one most people think to show.

Because it’s an unknown known.


In a sense, all these unknowns and knowns are like playing Jeopardy (you know that game show where they give you the answer and you have to ask the right question).

Answer: You haven’t shown suitable and sufficient context

Question: Why are all these applications completely unsuitable?


Answer: Candidates consistently ghost us.

Wrong question: What’s wrong with candidates? Why can’t they behave?


Good question: Why are candidates ghosting us?

Better question: How can we find out why candidates ghost us?

Right question: What can we do systemically differently to reduce the risk of candidates ghosting us?

Ghosting, counteroffers, bad behaviours - yes candidates are people who can change their minds. But for every strange decision is a black swan that is their hidden context.

Which might be as simple as trained distrust from widely bad recruitment experiences.

So while this is a simplified example, it’s used to show that problem solving can find unknown unknowns, by looking at known issues, finding their root cause, and then applying learnings against future events.


Another opportunity to find the black swans that can improve recruitment is to check your blind spots.

A wing mirror and shoulder check works well enough in driving.

Why not in recruitment?

Recruitment is a business where candidate and employer activity directly reflect each other.

Indeed a recruitment exercise is a reverse job search and vice versa.

Which makes learning from candidates a valuable exercise in improving recruitment.

But not just the candidates you know about, those in your process, but the ones you’ve rejected, ignored and even the ones who read your advert and chose never to get in touch.

I write about this in my 11-part Recruitment Reflected series, part 1 of which is here.


Of course, the problem with blind spots and bias is that often you aren’t aware you have them, which is why they are unknown unknowns in the first place.

But if these same are also black swans, then there is a significant opportunity to find improvement in recruitment by identifying them.

One such opportunity is through Diversity.

But not just the diversity of your people, but the diversity of problem-solving.

In this way retaining consultants who have insight you don’t is advantageous for many companies.

And a good recruiter can do the same at the outset of a recruitment project, by asking the right questions.

After all, if each unknown unknown has a simple question at its root, you need simply ask the right questions to find the black swan that can lead to the best recruitment outcomes.


Unfortunately, the opposite of this notion is why much recruitment is the way it is.

Companies who don’t proactively challenge their own assumptions, biases and unknown unknowns, will believe that’s just how recruitment should be done.

It’s the illusion of explanatory depth.

And so, any improvement is only down to skill or good fortune, rather than better principles and process.

But while you can always build skill and find luck from the right principles and process, you can’t do it the other way around.

How do you fix shoddy foundations once the house is built?

Perhaps the cracks you have in your walls are the symptom not the cause.

Thanks for reading.

Regards,

Greg

p.s. buy my stuff - recruitment, writing, projects. I can be your black swan.

By Greg Wyatt August 18, 2026
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By Greg Wyatt August 11, 2026
What follows is Chapter 49 in A Career Breakdown Kit (Summer 2026) . It's like many other chapters in that I've tried to make it stand alone, yet it's deeply connected to the rest of the book. For example, if you accept your job search is equivalent to launching a product to market - where you are the product and your next employer the buyer - then a sensible strategy is also equivalent. You execute an appropriate multichannel sales and marketing plan, where you focus on the steps in your control, with considered action and follow up. An interview process is an ongoing negotiation, with each interview equivalent to a consultative sales meeting. And like any good sales professional, you know that the steps preceding, the steps in-between, and the steps after all have a part to play. In my last three offers these have all been contributing factors: The relationship nurtured by the hiring manager led to their new employee hitting the ground running The private information withheld by the candidate that led to an offer rescinded because she could never have fulfilled the role in the first place The enthusiasm shown by a candidate in post interview communications tipped a decision in their favour Recruitment is risk, filled with bias - that doesn't mean you can't make that work for you. 49 - After the interview In a tough job search, getting to an interview can feel a real achievement. If you’ve been accountable in your applications, only going for roles where you are a strong fit, these are tangible opportunities to secure employment. The interview itself isn’t the be-all and end-all. It’s better to see them as the start of a conversation, one that’s only complete when you either have an acceptable employment contract in your hand, or if it’s an unequivocal no. Continuing this conversation in the right way, and in ways other candidates may not think to, can bring hoped for and unexpected gains. A few weeks back I filled a vacancy which had a strong shortlist. The final three were all employable, and the company would have taken all three had they been able to. The second choice candidate was disappointed and took it well, responding professionally. I worked hard to give all three a good experience with regular updates and constructive feedback. I too was genuinely disappointed for the ‘unsuccessful’ candidates. Two weeks after accepting the offer and returning the signed contract, the first-choice candidate withdrew. She’d received a significantly improved offer having been headhunted. Within two hours of passing the news on to the hiring team, the 2nd choice candidate was offered the role and accepted. How she had responded to her initial disappointment was a key element in this offer being put forward. The same was true of her experience with us in her decision to accept the offer. In many ways an interview is like a sales meeting. One party pitches their offering which might be customised against the questions asked. The other party makes a decision on whether and how to proceed. In an interview both the candidate and employer act as both seller and buyer. As a job seeker you get the final say on whether you say yes, no or something in between. Your decision is influenced by factors you may not divulge to the employer, such as an unexpected intervention (illness, accident, family), personal circumstances or other offers that may come up. It’s the same for the employer. They may have a hierarchy of decision-making, changes in the business and changes outside of the business - many things that can influence an interview decision or time frame, different from what was initially agreed. In sales we know that a deal isn’t agreed upon until the invoice is paid. Even if there is an initial ‘yes’ in a meeting we follow up suitably. Follow-up email to confirm details of the conversation and next steps. Thank you for your time Follow up at the appropriate time to check progress If it’s ‘no right now’, follow up over time to build a relationship until they are ready to buy If it’s ‘no answer’, find appropriate reasons to follow up, ending in a breakup email What this actually looks relates to what their sales (hiring) process is, playing to their rules and breaking those same rules in an appropriate way. In the UK, 61% of private sector employers are SMEs, whereas the vast majority of money is in the corporate space. The differentiator in recruitment is that the more corporate you get, the more transactional and matrix-led recruitment often becomes. Some of the rules of the game will be different. This illustrates how and why things are different depending on the context. Public sector, charities, geography, bias, habit, strategy - these all affect the rules of what appear similar processes from the outside. It’s important not to be cynical or come across as coercive. Respect the process and any rules you learn about. Thank you notes Most of the employers I partner with are interested in candidate feedback and interest post-interview - to help them reach their decision for the right reason. Were you applying directly, their interest in your view would be the same. A naturally written thank you note sent appropriately should not work against you. It might work for you and it’s a situation where someone’s bias can be a benefit. ‘Dear Greg, I wanted to thank you for your time today and the opportunity to interview at ABC Corp. It was a pleasure to meet you and Gary and helpful to understand more about your role and environment. I remain keen and would be delighted to return for the next stage. You mentioned you’ll make a decision by the end of next week and I look forward to hearing from you. Do let me know if I can help with anything - my number is …. Kind regards,’ It’s an opportunity to build on or mitigate inconclusive points in an interview if there’s an example you neglected to share or if you didn’t convey information in the right way. Maybe they let slip they’d be concerned if the role would keep your interest in the long term - why not own this? ‘During the interview you asked if I could see myself in this role long-term. It’s a role I’d enjoy - taking on a hands-on role I can get stuck into is an exciting challenge, while my experience in xxx would be beneficial for yyy.’ Keep it more succinct than my email though. Write it in your own words in a similar tone to how you came across in the interview. Will it make a difference? Only marginally, in some situations. Is it worth doing as a natural way to continue the conversation? I think so. Don’t be disheartened if you don’t get a reply - they may have a policy to follow. And to that coercive point above don’t say ‘I’m the best candidate. You’d be a fool to miss out,’ or something more subtle that might suggest the same. Additional interviews In an ideal world you’d get a full view of the interview process before the interview. Unfortunately some employers enjoy playing a game of interview chicken, revealing more and more interview stages as you go through them. Most are somewhere in between. Try to establish the full process as early as possible in case there is anything that is non-negotiable for you. For example, I know some people categorically do not want to do technical tests or ‘business plan’ style presentations, having had their fingers burnt in the past. It’s your choice what might be a non-negotiable - for any reasonable employer these are typically used as a means for fair assessment. Treat any interview in the same way as the first interview: prepare as fully as possible and assume nothing. Unless you know their hierarchy of decision-making, that new person you meet at fourth stage for an informal chat might well be the person with the final say. Even a social get-together after an offer is put forward might be seen as an assessment. Appropriate follow-ups It’s a careful balance. You want to show you are interested, not desperate. You need an answer, not to be inappropriately intrusive - even if that’s not your intent perception holds weight. Following up in the right way is a good tactic. If you can gain an understanding of their time frames or process work to that. Anything and everything can happen behind the scenes, including unexpected absences. Things can slip in a way employers may not see as notable. A few work days after you were expecting to hear, drop them a polite line. ‘Hi Greg, I wondered if you had any news on how you want to proceed with this role. Is there any update you can share? Kind regards,’ You can play a bit of keeping up with the Joneses if it’s true - ‘I remain interested - I do have two interviews this week with other employers. Would you like me to keep you updated?’ Sometimes no news is no news and you might need to be patient. Eventually you may come to a point where you need a decision from them - such as if your 2nd choice company gives you a job offer. A breakup email can be a good thing. Even if this doesn’t prompt an update or decision from them, you give yourself agency to walk away with no ‘what ifs?’ And if they do come back later, you can make a separate decision on whether to revisit them. One such email might be: ‘Hi Greg, I enjoyed our interview on May 21st. You mentioned you’d reach a decision the following week. Can I assume you have moved forward with another candidate? I’ll draw a line through my application for now and will be happy to pick up our conversations at a later date, if appropriate. Kind regards,’ Written appropriately, there are three outcomes: You get a reply confirming they have appointed You get no reply and can move on You get a reply with more information That last point may be ‘no news’ or something actionable. Sometimes it might even prompt good news. Whatever the outcome, you can move forward. Keeping in touch long-term Sometimes a no might be a ‘no for now’, especially when you are later on in the process, such as being pipped to the post at final interview. If yours is a business as usual role where there are a number of employees fulfilling similar duties in the same company, you may well be suitable for other roles that come up in future. How can you keep in touch appropriately so that you help their decision making when another vacancy comes up? Find reasons to occasionally keep in touch (maybe once every couple of months). If they are active on LinkedIn you could follow their content and add constructive comments. It may come to nothing but it may give you early sight of a new vacancy. If you see another vacancy advertised check it out. Drop them a line directly rather than just apply given you are continuing a conversation rather than coming in cold. And if they reply to say ‘don’t bother’, at least you know.